Ponzis Always Fail After a Few Years

From

https://podcastindex.org/podcast/440470?episode=48111284089

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Railway Bust 1840s…they overbuilt 6 lines

  • They overbuilt with 6 lines from Leeds to Manchester.

What was the Railway Mania of the 1840s?

In 1845–1846, Britain had a ‘mania’ during which investors poured capital into railway construction, producing a share-price boom, followed by a collapse that by 1848 had reduced railway shares’ value to the initial capital invested, which then fell below it until the 1860s

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Long Bond TLT Follows TIP

ROC12 now +ve.

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Gov’t Payroll also 0.2% BUT just 0.1% in Dec

Economy weakens fast also…No hire…no fire. Until SPY hiccups…

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TIPs confirm bond bull..ROC4 +1.25%

and ROC 4 / ROC 12 both +ve.

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12 week rolling SPY / S&P (wk av) method better than FRED daily average

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BTC down YoY -27%…liquidity dries up

12 wk X 100 wkma now…very bearish.

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SPY 12wk +1.6%

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Asset Prices Drive Real Economy

A slowing SPY is bad news.

Rolling 12 week change-

Q2 +11.2%

Q3 +6.6%

Q4 +2.7%

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ADP change now 0.2% YoY

below 1.0 is weak

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