BTC has 2X beta of SPY and has gone sideways since October.
OR 0.3 of last year…so next year +7%.
When the stock surges big one year…the increase drops big the next year.
Euro starts to move up…weakening US economy. Growth started to falter in 2025….
Bonds sideways since October…due for a turn.
S&P up 13.9% vs 28.3% last year (Monthly average)…
Empl to Popn falls again to 59.6…falls 0.8% (peak) of 340M pop or 2.72M jobs lost.
AND SPY slowing 50% of last year…
2026 could be as low as 22% of 13.9% or 3%…
For the upper middle and lower…
Also P&G
CLEARLY WAGES ARE NOT DRIVING THE ECONOMY!
It’s S&P and wealth effect. Wealth effects are coming off for housing as of this year.
BUT Inflation is dropping…
Gov’t data starting to catch up…Sep equivalent rent is now reflecting falling rents and house prices….
Also we know Oct rents have fallen further.
They rank sentiment and ISM manufacturing new orders high even though sentiment tells me nothing
and manufacturing is now 10% OF ECONOMY.
It is not 1955 anymore when new orders for car parts mattered.
AND THEY WEIGHT S&P AT ONLY 10% ! The 6 months ending August was -2.5%.
This all explains why they have been so off with their forecasts for the last 4 years!
AND economy and especially jobs now slowing despite SPY rising 78% in 3 years!
Idiocracy NOT conspiracy! For me I would love conspiracy, idiocracy is the worst of all worlds.
BUT conspiracy sells and idiocracy doesn’t.
We live in the age of Central Bankers and idiots. They hoped everything would work out for example 2024 and 2025.
AN ominous conclusion is the only conclusion. Because JP is now realizing that SPY rising at such a clip IS NOT SUSTAINABLE. If SPY slows down, economy will be in huge trouble. I think in August the idiot central bankers have slowly woken up to this fact. Hence, the talk of everything being OK while at the same time they know it’s worsening.
They are stuck between a massive stock bubble and a failing economy.
Unfortunately for them, there is now no way out. They have to pause rates in Dec. No drop in Jan.
Getting close to negative…since August DOWN
AND YoY shows point of no return…
Credit Flow Investor 