Credit Flow Investor

Q2 +11.2% Q3 +6.9% Q4 +2.7%

Q1 -6.2%

Q2 will be low as well with rebound in Q3 and Q4

As there are no straight lines and markets will oscillate before the big crunch..

When the conditions occur from May- onwards…

I could never figure out the riddle of 2007-2008 until I realized that WS switches to milk Oil and Gas when stocks start failing. Oil and Gas are speculations to WS in this environment …the economy be damned.

SPY was just +2% in 2007.

This solves 2008 when oil spiked in a weak (neg GDP) economy weakening the economy further. Gold also rose first starting years before in 2004.

The years 2023-2025 had strong SPY but weak gasoline especially….another riddle if you don’t know.

The smart ones started buying gold who knew that SPY would weaken and WS would switch to Oil Gas and Gold.

The problem contains the Fed as they can’t drop rates too quickly especially the magical 2.0% level.

Advantage to TLT being late to the party as these conditions become obvious. Gold is the first mover.

TLT starts to rise in general pricing in the coming bad economy and recession. Hence, the idea of TLT to SPY ratio being the tracker along with change of SPY (weak) being low.

Eventually, the big deflation hits when SPY is sold off 50% along with everything (margin calls)

except bonds.

4 standard deviations means 99.9% percentile

1 SD = 6.27%….Average price $3.64…Feb $2.91

And weekly gas change has leveled…+0.7%

This game is all about patience waiting for the right conditions.

People don’t want to face the truth…its idiocracy! …No more Oh my! Neg payrolls! panic….drop rates! This is your 2025.

But 2026 is bad news for them relying on high SPY 2023-2025 to rescue everything!

SPY will now have negative slope for 8 months…

Short term crisis ending….gasoline now flat for 5 days straight….

Weak Economy + Weak SPY + No Fed = Hiccup (deflationary drop)

Negative slope on SPY weakens economy so rate rise not needed. This is an oil and gas matter.

Fed will have to hit the brake to bring inflation down…

US average gas prices-

Now that oil and gas in decline…