Category Archives: Uncategorized

OR bi-wkly change.. Gas more flat in May +2% vs +12% in April

CPI ‘surges’ though…it’s not a straight line. But YoY still high by end of year at 3.2… And 2026 marks rising CPI…and more next year and even more 2028! This means weakening economy.

Based on cpi being 3.1 by Dec… As you can see …economy was benefiting from falling inflation from 2023-2025.

SPY has been useful with Q4 +2.7% and Q1 -6.2% showing a slowing momentum (slowest in 3 years) which leads to CPI surges and recession. However, bonds and CPI surges are the trackers now. You can never win with technicals … Continue reading →

CPI will hit 3.7 YoY in April. And of course, the only way to have CPI < 3.0 is no drop in Sep. Many years have 2 runs or 2 hiccups! (to try to bring inflation under control) Hiccups when … Continue reading →

Now that gasoline is in ‘play’…the pre-recession has arrived and WS plays both gasoline and OIL as well as SPY. ‘Reversals’ are now possible especially with gasoline +10% in 1 week. BUT SPY upside is now limited. AND S and … Continue reading →

the last 3 weeks…

Based on the last 3 weeks (12wks at +2.1%) and continuing on current curve..

I have seen this all before. The FED and gov’t have been benefiting from WS for years ..the ‘virtuous’ cycle. Oil and gas have remained low and everyone has been benefiting. Quick summary: BEFORE a recession, Oil and SPY become … Continue reading →