Credit Flow Investor

High interest rates + gas are still killing the economy.

Imagine! 5 months up on interest rates! (Mar-Jul)

Your computers won’t tell you that!

40 wk X 100 wk in May

23% out-performance on SPY or 3:1

Since May-June WMT down….

at +10% you are in a bear market or bad economy…

M2V now hits 0

At end of June…Q2 +7%

WS is greedy…why not keep commodity prices high as well? Lets make money on SPY+commodities.

BUT that also kills the economy and leads to a market correction.

1yT starts discounting the coming correction first.

1yT continues down…

Why did long bonds do badly in July and August?

Because the trend was down (6 months downtrend). They will show signs of turning by end of August.

THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND. (until the end).

AND 1yT has a very good downtrend from 5.5% in May 2024 so

economy is slowly weakening with some market hiccups along the way when short-term economy shows extra weakness.

But still high….AND also indicates growth is declining.