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Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor
Basic Rules of the Commodity Cycle: When SPY is on discount, they buy it back. When commodities are on discount, they buy it back.
BUT they PREFER more and more commodities over SPY because economy has weakened and SPY is overcooked. AND economy will weaken and go to recession and REMAIN weak for 4 years afterwards. SO within a commodity cycle you have ‘swings’ … Continue reading
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TECK outperforms SPY 35% this year
commodity cycle shift in 2026….
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Bonds Up and Gold Down means liquidity dries up…
And the good thing is…bonds are late to the party!
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IT TAKES 3 MONTHS TO BRING A COMMODITY CYCLE DOWN (economy way too hot real pce 0.6 aug!)
THE FED NOW SEES A BIG GDP AND BIG CPI NUMBER! So now a Dec rise as well.. AND TLT LOVES inflation fighting…see Nov-Dec 2018. Keep in mind it hasn’t even started yet! The ‘jawboning’ by the FED in JUNE … Continue reading
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Jobs are down with little impact…but now that the commodity bubble has arrived economy will weaken.
-4.3M jobs since Sep 2023… And the change….actually getting worse from Jan 2024… AND Payroll growth way below 1% since July 2024…2 years+…
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Diesel +15% Sep and PPI since 2006…
PPI far above CPI….common to 2022 and 2006-2008…commodity bubbles
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