When CPI is 1.x or 2.x the Fed will add stimulus. When CPI is 3.x, the Fed will signal no intervention. This has occurred in 2010, 2011 and 2012…also 2008!

I predict that a weak January economy will lead to more stimulus by the Fed in February. The Fed will continue until the CPI reaches 3.x and the economy weakens due to inflation.

However, the VIX at 15 (low)  indicates SPY return will be less than 2011/2012 as the VIX cannot fall much further.