The yen will fall although may rebound shortly.  The Euro will rise through the year.

These two opposing forces will keep the USD in a tight range so SPY, commodities, etc. and TLT will also be in a range say 140-150 on SPY.  Perhaps European stocks will do the best this year.

Inflation will remain subdued until the Euro tops out and the USD starts a downtrend perhaps after the debt ceiling resolution.  As Q1 GDP will be weak at 1.x%, the Fed will increase QE after debt ceiling resolution if the economy shows no pickup after resolution.  This will most likely cause a downtrend in USD.

When the weekly FXY exits RSI to the upside…buy for a short-term counter rally.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXY&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37396990940