The best time to profit is when there is a transition from risk on to off and vice versa.  I anticipate the next transition to risk off in May or June when inflation ticks up to 3.x level and economy shows signs of stalling.

You can see the ‘stalling/transition’ point with:

1) slope of the VIX

2) at least 3 months in risk ON

3) ecri 13 week change is turning

4) cesig10 has peaked and is rolling over

5) inflation in 3.x range

Remember stall speed does not entail a slowdown or recession when the Fed is ‘on’ mode.

For a short-term play, I expect a rebound in FXY to the 50% BBd level when it will be a good time to sell.  For all else, cash is best until a pullback to the bottom BBd SPY around 140-141 mid-late Feb.

TLT has already reached 50% BBd level and has been sold.