TLT should be sold as TLT:SPY indicates risk on again.

I am in cash now.

I suspect that until core inflation rises to 2.1 the spy will grind higher.  Core inflation has dropped to 1.9 and cpi to 1.5.  These rates are too low and the Fed will continue until they both reach 2.x. Since early last year inflation has been stubbornly too low hence the large QE efforts.

Perhaps the June cpi report (core >=2.1) will be high enough for the Fed to signal a relaxed stance.  Oil has turned ‘bull’ again so gas should also start to rise. CPI should drive higher along with stocks until cpi 2.x has been achieved.

The good news is a bubble has clearly been created in SPY and when the stimulus is scaled back, the correction will become a crash of 15%+.