Mortgage bond sell-off has hit TLT.  BUT the way to filter this event is with the No. 1 TLT:SPY chart. When it crosses, its a strong buy.  First possibility is mid-July.

Economy is still weak so Fed on Jun 19 will indicate continued QE.  Stock market will hit 10 wkma.  SPY hits 10wkma and bounces again up until mid-July.

Earliest CPI core 2.0 is possible on July 16.  When TLT:SPY X 10wkma, this will be the second confirmation signal to buy TLT as surge to occur in Aug/Sep.

A possible MBS tapering may start on Jun. 19 although unlikely. A twist is in the cards on Sep 18 Fed Mtg.