It’s best to stay cash for now (no TLT and no SPY).  The VIX is now rising and Wall Street is worried about QE shutoff.  Even if the Fed indicates on Jun 19 a hold, the market may still drop.

In 2012, the Fed was due to shutoff the twist on June 30 and yet the market crashed in May.  Care must be taken 1-2 months before the shutoff of stimulus as the market starts down BEFORE the shutoff or reduction occurs due to profit taking.

So it’s back to the TLT:SPY chart and the transition points.  It’s always best to invest only at the transitions. The next transition (TLT:SPY X 10wkma) will most likely occur mid-July although the line is now rising.  The TLT:SPY chart should be watched daily now.