TLT has been in bear mode since December same time as gold.  I would wait for it to X 40 wkma to indicate a new bull market.  Although inflation is low and still falling, QE forces are dominating as with GLD.

If both VIX lines rise above 25+, SPY is a play as the fear guage will be high enough (indicator here is the 15 kwma turning).   For now the economy is weak and SPY/TLT are volatile and hard to predict.