Gas buddy keeps falling probably to 3.30 level.   TLT (gas buddy falling) and SPY (anti-taper sentiment) will rise for a while on continued anti-taper sentiment.  This sentiment is highly volatile so not a good bet.

However, this is another ‘loading the gun’ analogy with regards to real economy.  Consumer metrics talks about low gas prices freeing up spending power so you get an economic burst thereafter.  You can see January-February this year. It looks like August will be the burst month – it can easily burst 10% in 1 month from 3.32 to 3.66. When gas buddy bursts again, TLT will fall or go sideways. The inflation surge will cause a burst of inflation which should bring core to 2.0.

If at mid-Sep cpi core reports at 2.0, the Fed can taper Sep 19. Perhaps we have taper (Sep), taper(Oct), then twist in Dec! November and December were very weak last year making YoY cpi comparisons look strong.

TLT:SPY may even X at a low level but go sideways.

We also need-

1) TLT to get near 40wkma (it should X to get a new bull market)
2) Definite cpi core at 2.0