Unfortunately, core inflation is still falling. Last month it rose 0.08% and 0.1% in May. Q2 should be weak.
Q3 shows signs of picking up however. If July is very strong as Feb this year, 2.0 is still possible for July.
For now, cash. When it comes time to buy TLT at the transition (Sep but maybe Aug), the timing is good.
From July 9 Lance Roberts-
“What is important to notice is that there have only been a few times in history that rates have gotten to 4-standard deviations above the long-term moving average. Every single time, as noted by the vertical red dashed lines, such extreme movements in rates has been a peak in rates for the intermediate term. Most recently these extreme spikes were witnessed prior to the recession following the “technology bubble” in 2000 and the “housing bubble / financial crisis” in 2008. ”
Gas Buddy rising still at 2c per day. This is a very significant rise in inflation and makes 2.0 a possibility for July (July 2012 was 0.01%) report will be Aug 15. The economy stalls and stocks fall after gas buddy exceeds 3.80. While the Fed will stay the course on July 31, minutes of the meeting on Aug 21 will reflect comments about bubbles and inflation.
Credit Flow Investor 