Gas buddy has turned down again but cpi was up a respectable 0.5 in June.  July should be similar.  I sense the TLT:SPY will occur in 3rd week of August.  Gross CPI (reported Aug 15) should be 2.2+ above the Fed’s 2.0.

Below cpi data for 2011 is seen.  Gross cpi crosses 2.0 in February creating an uptrend in TLT.  Later in August, core cpi crosses 1.94 and the twist is implemented.  Notice both trends are up.