It would have been better to be 2.1 or 2.2.  CCPI for July was 1.70 which is a rise but also on low side.

I consider it unlikely that GCPI will maintain 2.0 on Sep 17.  Therefore it’s a wait and see for Sep 18 to see if Fed pushes ahead with taper anyway because unemployment will have met their goal.  Most likely it will be another shot in the arm for September-early October. Oct 30 taper will be followed by the usual November fall see 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012! Oct, Nov and Dec had very weak cpi last year (0.17%, -0.24%, and 0.03%) so it will be easy to maintain 2.0 through this period.

Oct 30 taper would most likely be followed by a twist on Dec 18 due to stock market correction in November.  I just read Bullard’s comments see below.  This is Fedspeak saying taper is Oct 30 as I predict above.

Premature taper could increase threat of deflation: Bullard

(Reuters) – The Federal Reserve could increase the risk that the U.S. economy suffers a damaging bout of deflation if it tapers its bond buying too aggressively, a senior central banker said on Wednesday.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also said that he had not yet made up his mind if next month’s Fed policy meeting was too soon to opt to start scaling back purchases, from a current $85 billion monthly pace.

“It is possible if you pull back too quickly you put more downward pressure on inflation and end up with inflation running below 1 percent. And then I think at that point, deflation possibilities would start to arise,” he told reporters.

“We’re not in that situation right now, but that is one scenario that I would worry about,” he said, after delivering a speech.

Labor markets have improved substantially since September, when the Fed’s current campaign of quantitative easing was announced, he noted. But growth is not strong and inflation is only around 1 percent, or half the Fed’s 2 percent target.

(Reporting By Alister Bull)