Core inflation now has an uptrend which is bullish for TLT.  TLT:SPY X should occur within 2-3 weeks.  I will wait for Sep 18 before buying as taper announcement will give a buying opportunity on that day.

From Mar (reported Apr)-Jun (reported Jul) was the downtrend for ccpi and also TLT.

However, July (reported Aug 15) shows an uptrend and TLT has now stabilized and will begin uptrend next month.  As Q4 was weak last year,  ccpi should rise from Sep-Dec.

65% of economists predict taper to start in September. The employment goals have been met but growth is weak.  Ccpi is rising now and should rise through December. The OEX internals of stock market show downtrend now.  I think Fed is concerned with bond market and wants to stop the fall. The gun needs to be reloaded on SPY by letting it fall.

If it starts in Sep, they will follow with Oct and a twist to start with Dec meeting.