Now that TLT is bought…hold positions.  The OEX will tell when to exit and sell.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEXA200R&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p98821371788

When OEX X on the upside either the 10 wkma or the 40 wkma, it’s a good time to sell.  Target dates are end of September to mid-October.  One other check is the ccpi still rising on Sep 17.

It’s the reverse of last year in November.  The economy stalled last November when the stocks were low and the bond prices high. Now the bond prices are low and must go up while the stock prices are high and can come down.

See also the SPY trend link showing a smooth curve on stocks. The downtrend actually started mid-June.  It bottoms 60-65 or 25-30 depending on the run before.  This run looks like a 2011 OEX dip level ending with a range of 25-30 and 2-3 more months of down.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEXA200R&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51905434648