TLT will most likely suffer from taper speculation and go sideways bouncing $1-$3 and possibly down.  A ccpi and gcpi of 2.0 will be necessary to get at least a $8 run or more.  I see this as most likely May of next year as inflation is still weak.

SPY is still the only bull market in town and will remain so until taper day Apr 25.  As the BBd is wide for SPY at this point, it usually goes sideways (Oct) and falls (Nov).  I have reconsidered and see the next buying opportunity in November as SPY may fall after debt resolution and get close to the 200dma at some time in November (161).  This will be the buying opportunity as it will rally $7-10 until the Fed meeting Dec. 18.  Sell day would be Dec 18 or 19 whichever in the ‘up’ day. When SPY hits the 200dma, the best run is 1 mo or 30 days later.

In addition to the BBd on SPY, the daily OEX or OEXd can be used to time the rebounds and buy point.  SPY may bounce on the BBd 3-4 times before a bottom in November.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEXA200R&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56008386277