When ROC(20) crosses -4.5% or greater and OEX 4dma crosses on the upside, the SPY rebounds in 1 month. Payrolls will be a non-issue on November 1 as bls is furloughed.

By waiting for a -4.5% drop or more in 20 trading days, a rebound of 1 month occurs: Jun 2012, midNov 2012-midDec 2012, Jun 2012-Jul 2012, Aug 2012-Sep 2012. The OEX 4dma is then referred to for the rebound re-entry point and avoids the falling knife.

(1) ROC (20) falls below -4.5% :

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p99357778083

(2) OEX 4dma as a rebound confirmation after (1) occurs –

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEXA200R&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22104518314

Sell point is Fed meeting or +5% on ROC(20). Now that worries about taper exist since June the best sell point is the Fed day as ‘no taper’ is confirmed.