The November setup is looking good as oil continues to fall. Cash now and deploy to SPY at -4.5% and OEXd 4dma turn point or possibly 162-200dma. The first week of November econ numbers wont be good see retail data below…setting up a ROC20 in SPY of -4.5% or to 200dma 162. The OEXd 4dma has turned down. MBB, JNK, and TLT have turned down so interest rates will rise sapping more consumer spending.

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Lance-Roberts-131015-Retail-Sales.php

“U.S. auto sales in September fell to a five-month low…it is clear that the consumer was already feeling the pressure of the surge in interest rates, higher energy and food costs and stagnant wages”

However, gas buddy is leveling off but it is still too early to tell.  I have noted that gas buddy is good for knowing inflation for the entire month but not so good for determining transitions for SPY. For example, SPY ran nicely in September but gas buddy was falling in September. A rapid rise of 2c per day as seen this Feb is bad for SPY but anything else is not that important.

As a side play, there’s a very cheap option right now … AAPL 300 puts Jan 2015 at $6.10.  AAPL has

1) Falling Revenue

2) Falling Earnings

3) Book Value $135

and the stock has barely corrected (-20% yoy)! It could easily fall to book value by Jan 2015 as emerging markets, taper worries, and weak consumer spending dominate stocks next year.