When April inflation was low, May had a very good rally as now rising ROC20 7.5%.  We have now seen the same with Sep inflation and Oct/Nov rally.

However, there’s a chance that the minutes / meeting will emphasize possible taper just as in May.  Down after the minutes and up after the Fed meeting. The Fed wants to limit the upside of the SPY hence the taper policy. In May this lead to a fall of -4.5% in June.  It’s a strong possibility that December will also see a -4.5% by the time of the Fed meeting or shortly thereafter Dec 18-23 (buy SPY when it re-enters the BBd after falling below it).  A rally from Dec 23 to the Jan 29 meeting would occur. Most of the gains would be Dec 23-Jan 8 (Fed minutes).

Cash is best now until Dec 18-23 time frame.