If not buy TLT Mar/Apr. For now stay cash. ROC-4- means rate of change 20 days for SPY falls more than 4%. Now it is 0% and crossing to – territory can take a few days to a month. There will be some kind of dip before the debt dabate.

I am concerned with 3 good months in a row..Sep, Oct, and Nov that Dec will be a pause or ‘down’ month.  I prefer a solid ‘dip’ of ROC -4- before taking a chance especially before the debt debate Jan 15-Feb 7.  If ROC is -4- then I say buy otherwise wait for Jan bottom/just before debt debate resolution.

I am not saying there won’t be some kind of Christmas rally after Fed mtg but it might be anemic especially just before debt debate round 2. It could also be choppy (see June this year) until debt debate is resolved.