ROC20 is now minus

But I want -4- on/after Dec 18 before I consider buying large. See here Sep, Oct, and Nov were mostly +ve..a break is needed before next rebound.

The rally could still start Dec 18 as Nov PPI just came in -ve again -0.1% with YoY at 0.7% both low. BUT the complication here is the debt ceiling Jan 15-Feb 7 so on a balance of risks I still say not worth it unless ROC -4 occurs Dec 19-24.

OEXd is in the 78-82 rebound range. 1st dot above is the key here looks like Dec 18-19 will be the start of the rebound.

After every -4-, you get a solid rebound.  However, with a – 1 the rebound is usually smaller. So there will be a rebound but not as significant as a -4 event.

TLT Sidenote:

TLT 200dma X necessary for new bull mode…usual X is late Mar-late April time frame.