On Feb 19, the Fed minutes are released.  These are the best times to play a rebound provided ROC – is observed.  Last year the months were: Feb, Apr, Aug, and Oct.  May and November would not have been played as ROC was + for both times. Rebounds are stronger when GCPI and GasBuddy are falling.

The next date to watch is Feb 19.  If ROC – exists, I say buy on the first ROC – day as the difference is marginal between ROC – days and it’s important not to miss it.  SPY should also be near/at the bottom of the BBd. The sell point would be 2-3 weeks after when 2 red HA bars occur.

In general, ccpi 2.0 might not be achieved this year so TLT may be off the table until next year. See the following table from the economist describing what I call the ‘Japanization’ of the world economy.

And on inflation this year….

“Stubbornly weak inflation is shaping up as the wild card for U.S. monetary policy makers this year, with top Federal Reserve officials stumped by why it has lingered so low for so long and at odds as to what to do about it.

As the Fed wrestled through last year with deciding when to start trimming its massive bond-buying stimulus, the bulk of attention was focused on the unemployment rate, which until recently has been slow to fall following its spike up to 10 percent during the recession.

By last month, policy makers had grown confident enough in the job market to dial back on the program. Figures released Friday showed the jobless rate fell to a five-year low of 6.7 percent in December, despite the smallest monthly job gains in three years. With much of the hiring slowdown attributed to bad weather, however, many analysts say the Fed will stay on track with plans to end bond buying by late this year.

But there is a hitch: inflation has been drifting down for much of the last two years, measuring a feeble 1.1 percent in November by the Fed’s preferred gauge…..”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/12/us-usa-fed-inflation-idUSBREA0B09R20140112

CPI release schedule can be found here..

http://www.bls.gov/schedule/2014/month_sched.htm