Gas buddy and gas are now rising as usual in the Jan/Feb period.  Look at the 2 week St Louis Fed rate of change in gas prices below and the new link added under St Louis Gas Mo change.  Gas inflation is in fact higher than it was same time last year.

Gas Buddy also shows signs of leveling and a rise coming. OEXw shows no sign of drop as would be expected if a drop were to occur before Jan 29. So SPY might go up slightly but chance of large rebound is small. A significant drop of ROC-4 is needed before playing a rebound.

A SPY rebound can occur after a ROC- in February.  However, it will be small. I anticipate another gcpi 2.0 report in March (Feb cpi).  This will cause the Fed to taper on March 19 causing a SPY fall of 5-10%. You could also play TLT for only 2 weeks at end of March if gcpi shows 2.0.

However, April reported gcpi (March gcpi) will show a drop again to 1.5 (gas buddy is an early indicator).  This will be the best time to play a SPY rebound on April 15 cpi day (or the first green HA candle after Apr 15)  to middle of May. The next Fed meeting in April will a no-taper event and consequently SPY will rebound nicely after correcting mid-Mar to mid-Apr. The best rebounds last year Apr-May and Oct-Nov occurred after gcpi 2.0 events, Feb CPI & July CPI.

Likely taper schedule…Fed Mtgs:

Jan 29   no taper

Mar 19 taper, 2 week TLT run

late Apr, no taper