It looks like the large TLT play could be Nov-Dec this year after QE is shutoff AND ccpi 2.0.  It seems the condition for a large TLT run is when QE is turned off and ccpi 2.0.  This occurred Apr-Aug 2010 (QE shutoff Feb) and July-Sep 2011 (QE shutoff Jun).

The market corrects 1-2 months after the QE is shutoff.  The QE will be turned back on after the 15% correction occurs November-December.

Each year has seen 2 inflation surges  Feb 2012, Sep/Oct 2012, Feb 2013/July 2013, May 2014 and Oct/Nov 2014? So it may be that inflation does surge to 2.0 in October and November would be a buy for TLT. However, the correction could be as late as March and must be allowed for.

June meeting: Mortgage 15, Treasuries  20

July meeting          M 10  T 15

Sep meeting           M 5     T 10

Oct meeting            M 0    T 5

Dec meeting           M 0     T 0

If a T 0 condition is necessary, Feb-Mar would be the time frame for the correction.

A short-term 1 month play may still occur next month if ccpi is 2.0 and TLT shows a GHA event as March 15&18, 2013 showed.