The last 2 days gas buddy has leveled off. This is a bottom area and the rise you see in Dec 2012 is the initiation of QE.

So if QE starts in December, gas buddy could rise through Dec/Jan rapidly leading to a possible ccpi of 2.0 in Feb.  In that case, the Mar/Apr transition would be a good TLT/SPY turnaround play.

Currently waiting for the first GHA bar and VIX to fall to 18 area.  Most likely Thursday starts GHA. For now ccpi < 2.0, so SPY rebounds are the play.