Looks like SPY will rise for 1 week, retrace, and stabilize before Fed meeting.  Then down again when QE is not forthcoming (Jan 28). QE will not be announced then as:

1) SPY has not corrected 10-15%

2) Core inflation still not bad at 1.7

3) The Fed has been slow to respond this year despite other corrections. They have    maintained the taper policy and will maintain the no QE at this time and ‘react’ when necessary after a market correction.  Their employment levels are satisfactory.

Europe may still go ahead with QE but not the Fed.  QE in Europe (and not the Fed) will lead to a stronger $ and reduced SPY performance, corporate earnings, etc…

As TLT will be a bull market until QE is announced, TLT is the play.  For now cash, then TLT on 1st VIX GHA after or same day as Fed meeting.  So another entry for TLT before QE is announced, perhaps even another although a resistant and higher VIX indicates a correction is soon to be felt on SPY.

From yesterday’s chart, TLT can be seen to rise above the BBw and then pullback for a week and start up again.  The slope of the top of the BBw is accelerating.  In November perhaps $2, December-Jan $7, and Jan-Feb $10+?  The top of the BBw would then be about 139 in Feb with a daily level of $142. This would be the ‘topping’ level for TLT in Feb.

Also the TLT:SPY ratio hits 0.9 to 1.0 before a turnaround to SPY happens.  For now a mild uptrend with no switch to SPY  indicated…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT:SPY&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p58077737297

So the biggest SPY corrections occur when

1) QE is shutoff (now)

2) Economy not so great (see now with Oil and Gas Buddy)

3) After the Fed meets (Jan 28) and Wall Street hears no QE, they react aggressively down.