For april, VIX was below the 12dma except for the first 2 days and spy was above the average.  Both were bad for TLT.  Inflation also rose the last 3 months.

When QE is off, have to wait for TLT dump (-$5) in December 2014 after the Fed meeting. Rebounds require a fall whether its a SPY or a TLT rebound.

If interest rates rise in Aug/Sep, there will be a fall in TLT initially followed by a rally.  CCPI should be on downtrend.