Gas buddy peaked in august and fell.  TLT had good runs in September/October and December/January as a result. Also TLT flat when gas buddy was flat from late march to middle april. And TLT fell a lot from Apr 15-onwards as gas buddy rose.

Before entertaining next TLT run, gas buddy must peak and fall.  So the next TLT play may be after June meeting depending on gas buddy peaking next 2 weeks.

Buy indicators..for TLT in non-QE environment

1) Gas Buddy peaked and falling

2) After Fed Meeting

3) VIX rising, VIX HA > 15

4) TLT dumped before

5) TLT GHA and SPY RHA