Good news is world economy weak but inflation will rise with USD falling.  So overall good news to buy TLT cheap before the next run/rebound.  With world economy weak, the rising oil will last a short time perhaps end of May and then roll over again when world economy exerts influence on it. So a continued yo-yo SPY and TLT will occur.  QE cannot be engaged until inflation falls below 1.0

As you can see above, ccpi has been stuck between 1.5 and 1.9 the past 2 years. QE was engaged in 2010 ccpi fell below 1.0.  So inflation would most likely have to fall quite a bit before QE would be engaged.

For now, USD falls due to weak economy and therefore no interest rate rise. This will push up inflation in near term to 1.9 range and then stall out again. At that time, TLT will be a play when GB falls and VIX HA > 15 after a Fed meeting.