Consider TLT entry when

1) After Fed minutes May 20,

2) VIX HA > 15   (closes at 16 for example)

3) SPY is $2 below recent high or $210.  SPY should also be RHA.

Current VIX 12dma…

First sign would be VIX HA to show above 15

and SPY would have to turn red…

In June 2013, the Fed announced the taper policy to let the market adjust and then implemented it in December 2013.

I believe now they are also going to announce the policy of an interest rate rise and then implement it in Sep/Oct/Dec.

Going back to Jun 2013….May 1 was the Fed meeting and Fed minutes were May 22. Notice how VIX began to rise on May 22-23. On May 31, VIX HA crossed 15. Even though VIX was red on some days, it was consistently above 15.  This will be the entry criteria now for TLT.

VIX was RHA and SPY was GHA on June 26 morning for a rebound play.

VIX X 12dma on May 20..Fed minutes May 22

SPY started down on May 23 the day after Fed minutes and fell 5.6% from Fed minutes to 3 days after Fed meeting.

On June 19 the Fed met. SPY rebounded higher 4 days after Fed meeting because QE was still on and of course the policy hadn’t actually started yet.  In this environment, I believe SPY will rebound to the same level.

Notice June 26 morning is at 154.50  (+2.50 off of low 152):

1) SPY GHA +2.50 off bottom

2) VIX X 12dma and VIX RHA

For entry TLT consider May 31 at open when VIX HA > 15 and SPY was $2 below the recent high.