The market direction(s) are too ‘noisy’ right now.

Vix is up but the fed meeting is critical or rather the open of Jun 18.  Jun 18 at open tells the market verdict on the fed meeting and the resulting trends.

Plan is to play TLT then if TLT GHA, VIX GHA, and SPY RHA otherwise wait for the Monday Jun 22 at open for the near term direction of market. As SPY has hit new highs and TLT:SPY ratio is at bottom, the direction will most likely favor TLT.

So Jun 18 at open…

BTW, SPY run in Feb was too small ($7) 202-209 so SPY is a very limited play with QE off.  Therefore all plays will be TLT until QE or ‘loosening’ is back on (perhaps next year).

ROC20 chart below shows rebounds less now that qe is off…feb rebound small and march rebound also very small:

2013 QE…ROC peaks 7

2014 Taper….peaks 7 and 5

2015 no QE…one peak 5 and others 2.5

Aside, I am vindicated by Japanization being the primary problem:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/economic-policy-is-turned-inside-out-2015-04-30?page=1