As the bear begins in September (below 200dma), SPY will fall 20-30 points and Oil to $25 from Sep 2015-Sep 2016 (there will be a few small rebounds with LOWER highs). SPY will fall another 20 points from Sep 2016-Nov 2016 and SPY will bottom 8-12 trading days after the election. SPY will settle to about $160 (25% fall) and TLT to $160 as well.

Plan is as follows…

TLT    Sep/Oct or Oct/Nov run          3-4wks

TLT    Dec/Jan 2016 run                     3-4 wks

TLT   Jun 2016? run                             3-4 wks

TLT   End of Aug/1 st wk Sep             12 wks to end of Nov.

(Sell TLT when SPY goes green after election)

SPY   Dec Fed Meeting 2016                6 wks SPY rebound to Jan 2017 Fed Meeting

*DO NOT BUY SPY in Nov 2016!  Wait for the Fed commitment to QE before buying SPY as it can go sideways in December with no momentum as market fears keep it depressed due to the 25% correction and mild recession. They should commit to QE in Dec or Jan Fed meeting. Wait for this event.

ACE…From Jan 2017 onwards, look for VIX 20+ rebound events around Fed Policy changes:

Announcement means a pre-announcement such as Taper Jun 2013. This is not necessarily required.

Commitment means the Fed says they will do it at the next meeting for example Dec 2012,  Dec 2013 (taper) and Dec 2014 (end of QE). BEST TIME TO BUY as the uncertainty is gone and SPY or TLT runs all the way until the next Fed Meeting.

Execution means they actually start the policy such as Jan 2013 for QE and Jan 2014 for Taper and Jan 2015 where the execution is sticking to no QE.

SPY is the play during QE (Fed loosening) and TLT during taper/interest rate rise (Fed tightening). TLT is also a play if ccpi achieves 2.0 which is unlikely in this weak economic environment.

So the best profit occurs C-E or between commitment and execution. The great news here is to simply wait for the commitment and then profit all the way to the next meeting.