TLT and VIX in September…major RUNS are after holidays

The Fed may not raise interest rates after all due to weak demand see core PCE price index (lowest levels since 2010). They may allow ‘gravity’ to take over as monthly SPY MACD indicates a ‘roll over’ in momentum. The first negatives since 2008. Daily MACD is not useful.

August can have a limited run BUT major runs are after holidays: Sep-Nov, Dec-Jan/Feb, and sometimes Jun. Since 2011, every Sep the first 2 weeks TLT goes down and then rebounds. In 2011, TLT ran Aug/Sep and stayed up due to twist and ccpi at 2.0 being a problem. As inflation is not near 2.0, August will be a minor run.

TLT may rise over summer Jul-Aug but the biggest runs occur in the fall Sep/Oct or Oct/Nov after Fed meetings.

VIX needs to cross 15 and stay above 15, TLT GHA, and SPY RHA. When VIX and TLT turn red together, sell. Check at 0935, 1100 and 1300 New York time to see if TLT bar is still green.

Sell TLT if:

SPY gets OS

or VIX RHA, TLT RHA.

The run last Sep was 3.5 weeks. It should be stronger this time as SPY will X the 200dma and QE is off. Oil, of course, needs to be below < 10 wk moving average. TLT:Oil and TLT:SPY need to be > 10wkma.