The high VIX indicates an even higher VIX and recession next year.

VIX is down 10 and SPY is up 3.  Sep-Oct TLT run possible but also Oct-Nov.  The last 2 weeks of Sep will tell. If SPY HA starts to fall after the Fed meeting that will be the sign of a TLT run Sep-Oct otherwise it will be Oct-Nov. The Fed may talk up the market in Sep meeting so the TLT run may be delayed until Oct-Nov. GWm needs to turn red first on TLT to setup the rebound when it turns green again.

TLT:$USD has X the 40 wkma indicating a change in Fed policy to tightening.