Oil has X the 10wkma and been flat for 1 mo so SPY rally should start the next month. Oil leads SPY by 1-1.5 month. The high VIX 40 in August indicated a month settling time is required!

VIX has been flat this week at 22. Back to back or 2mo straight drops in SPY are rare only at election times 2008,2012, and next year. Notice OEX shows a rally coming as SPY is at bottom right now. Any good economic news in Oct should spark a rally!

TLT target buy is after Fed Meeting Oct 28 when Wm goes green, TLT:Oil and TLT:SPY confirm also.  For now TLT:oil shows bear…

2007 oex shows we are now in bear market and a rebound to 50 or so is expected. At least to 10wkma or 37.

Unemployment claims are fine and economy OK (from Fed point of view). Below is % change in UIC from 1 year ago.

The low gas prices actually should steady the US economy for October rally.

Of course, after Fed Meeting is key.  The red Wm has already occurred on TLT in September. I would expect it to go green after Oct Fed Meeting.