Bad news is the SPY rally appears to be over but will still see by Oct 28.  It only ran for a little over a week indicating a poor spring opportunity.

In order to get a $10 run on TLT, SPY needs to retrace to the 200dma or $2 near it.

If spy is near 196-198, then it is similar to the middle spring above.  TLT will rebound but the run will be small $5-$6.  If SPY hits 204 by the Fed Mtg, then it is similar to the last spring and TLT will rebound $10 in November.

If SPY fails to reach 203-204 at Fed Mtg, the next opportunity is after the Christmas rally or Jan 4 2016.

Aside point … Global debt hits record $199 trn or 40% increase since 2008. It’s a 6% yearly increase.

From this video…

Counting the Cost – Is the world addicted to debt?

“Debt was the trigger for the financial crisis in 2008, and what followed – from the collapse of Lehman Brothers to the Greek debt crisis – suggested that the world would no longer fall foul of debt.But debt continues to pile up around the world. It has actually increased by $57tn to $199tn (287 percent of global GDP), according to the McKinsey Global Institute – stifling global economic growth and heightening the risk of more defaults and market turmoil.Is the world addicted to debt? Are we heading towards another economic collapse?”

GOOD NEWS here is that the crisis next year (Aug-Nov 2016) should be very big indeed….great for crisis hunters..