- The TLT spring can be driven by Oil (down)/SPY (down) OR USD (up)/SPY (down). So the USD rising spring can exceed the oil spring.
- Oil and gas going lower shows weak world demand and therefore more action by ECB QE in Jan thereby driving USD higher…
- TLT has achieved the RWm requirement.
- Unemployment claims are rising slowly…watch for 0 X…
Also added the Red requirement for TLT to the spring diagram….
Also TLT:SPY ‘spring’ at bottom of range showing same pattern as last year going sideways in November.
Even though oil has a limited downside from here, the USD also drives TLT higher with a very high ‘upside’ limit. So ECB QE in Jan will drive USD higher and also TLT higher than might be expected in oil falling. Oil will still fall in Jan but the USD story will be a greater driver for TLT along with SPY.
I watch FXC as a proxy for USD. When FXC is OS, that drives USD much higher and therefore TLT. SPY falling will also be a driver as SPY will have peaked in December with the ‘Christmas Rally’.
Credit Flow Investor 