Same as last year Oct CCPI rose but very little. Due to discounts, etc. in November, it should fall when the Fed meets in Dec. This will set aside concerns of an interest rate rise.

Europe and rest of world continues to fall apart so ECB will add QE in Jan. This will drive USD higher and TLT. Jan will have a stronger SPY downdraft than last year. 2016 will be a crash year.  As it is a presidential election year AND Fed is in tightening mode, SPY should fall considerably in the Aug-Sep and Oct-Nov period. So TLT should have 3 good runs this year.

Due to inflation being on the high side AND good employment numbers, the Fed will hold off until the last minute which is after the election before hinting at new QE.