TLT will go green now (GHA) all the way until Jan 20 when ccpi is announced.  If ccpi < 2.0, then it will continue, otherwise it may go sideways after that. So the good news is the sideways motion of TLT since August will end.  The strongest ‘up’ will be the first 2 weeks of January.

The reference chart for this period is the Mar-Apr 2013 period when ccpi was 2.0:

As ccpi is 2.0, I realize now the Christmas rally will not happen this year. SPY will come under pressure now and resume the bear market (below 200dma). The high inflation environment leads to more Fed rises hence the downward pressure on SPY.