The end of month is the best time to sell TLT when there’s a good run ($10). The end of month effect is even more pronounced on a TLT good run than a SPY good run.

Even SPY pulls back very little at end of month if it’s strongly up for the month (and on the Fed day see Jan 2013). For this month, the end of month effect will also drive oil to its lowest point and SPY as well. I expect a moderate to strong rebound in Oil and SPY starting Feb 1.

For TLT examples, see May 2012, Apr 2013, Jan 2014, and Jan 2015. Even Sep 2014-Oct 2014 had a good run for TLT and it lasted 4 weeks ending on the Friday.