Inflation rose again …

So rate rise next week and TLT may go up $2 next week but performance flat as rate rise will dampen the effect.

Rate rise enviornment until ccpi < 2.0:

TLT rise/sideways … lackluster

SPY down

Oil down

BUT

monthly ccpi coming down although Jan -Mar usually has higher ccpi numbers so ccpi could stay above 2.0 until July.

So new plan is to buy back TLT when ccpi < 2.0 and selling 8-12d after the election. TLT is undervalued relative to oil and SPY due to rate rise environment. When ccpi < 2.0, fed will stop rate rises and TLT will initially rise slowly AND then burst forth in Aug-Nov period.

Now reviewing ccpi, TLT and SPY in 2008….note how TLT began to move in Sep when ccpi began to fall again (once below 2.0, very fast). This year ccpi is starting lower at 2.1 instead of 2.5. So the move in TLT should also start sooner. Jul-Dec seems to be the best period (due to election) BUT ccpi falling below 2.0 may advance the July start.