Idea is to play 1st round TLT starting mid-July when TLT RWm and exits. First sell will be Sep FedMtg followed by another buy Oct 31/Nov 1 and sell Dec. Below are ccpi and TLT in 2008. The pattern is the same (rising inflation and Fed rates).

CCPI will start to fall in Sep. So I don’t anticipate ccpi will fall below 2.0 by then but rather in Nov time frame. When it does finally fall, TLT will pop significantly as Fed will be loosening policy. Peak inflation will be Jul-Aug and will fall in the Fall. SPY will be crashing and Fed will be loosening policy (a wonderful environment for TLT). TLT will remain a coiled spring (Feb-Jul) until Fed starts to lower rates again.The Fed must drop rates in the Fall before starting QE in Jan 2017.