The rcp model was the closest…so once again the simplest model works the best…

http://acsh.org/news/2016/11/09/election-polls-were-wrong-and-why-rcp-better-nate-silver-10423

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RealClearPolitics’ Simple Model Is Superior to Nate Silver’s Algorithm

That sounds impressive, until one considers that RealClearPolitics (my former employer), nailed 49 states. Their prediction only got Florida wrong. They don’t use magic sauce; instead, they do a simple (though statistically incorrect) arithmetic average of polls. But it’s good enough. Occam’s Razor would advise us to accept the simple RCP model over Mr Silver’s fancy model. If the more complex model does not yield substantially better results, then perhaps the added complexity is nothing more than smoke and mirrors.“