Even though a TLT run is possible in Jan, the best conditions are:
- Fed rates 0 (PRIMARY)…Falling see 2008 or flat 2011
- ccpi > 2.0
- SPY falls 25%+ (In 2011, also fall 10-15% in SPY)
see Jun-Sep 2011, and Jan 2015, and Nov-Dec 2008!
As fed rates are > 0.25, TLT not a play. SPY short is the preferred plan when fed increases rates/tightens.
Mark Blyth discusses correlation and leverage to increase including smart beta strategy!
minutes 13:00-19:00
AND 39:00-42:30…
Credit Flow Investor 