Due to magnitude of TLT response, I believe now that 2017 will be closer to 2008 and TLT will not be a play until after October. Recession may be pushed until 2018 also BUT Q4 2017 probable. In Jan, TLT will be a dead cat bounce due to bonds falling precipitously the last 2 months, and a fed rate rise in Dec…it may still run in 1st week Jan BUT lacklustre performance after that.

Good news is a major SPY crash happens 2017. So a 2nd SPY short starting in Apr/May ending October will also be very good and it will be great coupled with TLT Nov-Dec and QE starting Jan 2018.

Note even in Jan-Feb 2016, TLT rises rapidly 1st 2 weeks of Feb AFTER the crash/fall in SPY.  So TLT rose fastest in the month after the crash/fall in 2016.

BUT 2008, it rolled over in Feb so again wait for major crash in Oct and buy Nov-sell Dec.