Best Time for TLT…Fed rates falling after a crash/fall in SPY

Posted on January 19, 2017 by Credit Flow Investor

The best time to buy TLT is when fed rates are falling (rates need’nt be 0 but decreasing) and  after a spy crash:

First happens SPY crash:

spy-2008

Then fed drops rates:

fed-rates-2008-tlt

Then TLT pops after the crash Nov 1-Dec Fed Mtg:

tlt-2008

 

The lead up to the 2008 GFC was after rates rose following very low interest rates:

2006-2008-fed-rates

Today debt levels are higher so rates need not go as high as 5% but the trend is the important issue. With rates rising 3 times this year, recession is coming up in 2018.

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