Gross cpi has surged in a big way from 1.7 to 2.1…hence the ‘3 fed rate rises’ stance this year.  This takes TLT off the table for any short term runs. BUT good news for recession next year.  You need inflation in order to have a recession and also fed rate rises.

Core inflation also back up to 2.2…

Also good news will be volatile markets and opportunities to play SPY short. See 2007 as a guide, 3 dips: Feb, Jul, Oct, and Jan 2008 (4th).