The best time to profit is when the Fed changes policy and the market reacts to it. All other times have low returns or are ‘noisy’. Those that are always invested waste too much time and energy for low returns. SPY short is the only policy now that inflation has become an issue. TLT will be a play in Nov. 2019 after the stock market crashes 40-50%.
Car Sales show 2y to recession:
Average annual car sales show no growth…a condition 2y before recession.
UIC claims need to rise Y/Y which they aren’t doing now. They probably will start to rise next year as Fed rate will be higher 1.5 and ‘base’ volatility will rise to 20 (currently it is 12). Most likely recession start is 2019 as unemployment claims start to rise a full year before the recession year (2018).
Because inflation has been so low for so long, it will take 11 years to get to the next recession from 2008.
Still Risk On…next chance to short is after FPC Jun 14.
List for June FPC:
- VIX reaches 15
- June gas monthly shows < 1% growth (related to oil price but chk also)
- Gas Buddy should show decline as well
- If the vix 15 starts on Jun 26, the idea is the ‘3 week rule’ or short until Fri., Jul 14 cpi day. The 3 week rule is to short for 3 weeks or until cpi day. In July they most likely will coincide.
The closest gas change environment is 2007 where may +ve and june -ve..
Credit Flow Investor 